Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $841,661$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(865,958.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85,704$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,370.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(86,370.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $43,707$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,048,865$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,121,663.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,121,663.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $218,575$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,899.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 90.9)}}\) (asimptote \(210,899.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,632,751$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $123,498$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,539.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(127,539.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,546$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,671.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,666$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $196,928$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154,757.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(154,757.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,781$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,123.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,123.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $20,834$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,691$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,976.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 139.9)}}\) (asimptote \(86,976.0\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,654.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,654.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $49,589$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,348$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,685.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 192.7)}}\) (asimptote \(121,685.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,168$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,612.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 190.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,612.3\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,911$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $120,450$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,521.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125,521.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,192$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,909.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,909.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,375$ on 2020-10-16
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $100,431$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 134.7)}}\) (asimptote \(99,352.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,478$ on 2020-10-16
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,365.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 114.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,365.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,459$ on 2020-10-16