Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Cuba
  • Trinidad and Tobago

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $841,661$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865,958.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 137.8)}}\) (asimptote \(865,958.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85,704$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,370.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(86,370.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $43,707$ on 2020-10-16

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,048,865$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,121,663.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 149.5)}}\) (asimptote \(9,121,663.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $218,575$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{210,899.6}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 90.9)}}\) (asimptote \(210,899.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,632,751$ on 2020-10-16

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $123,498$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127,539.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 142.8)}}\) (asimptote \(127,539.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,546$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,671.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 141.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,671.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,666$ on 2020-10-16

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $196,928$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154,757.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 86.3)}}\) (asimptote \(154,757.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,781$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,123.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,123.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,834$ on 2020-10-16

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,691$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,976.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 139.9)}}\) (asimptote \(86,976.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,556$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,654.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,654.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $49,589$ on 2020-10-16

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,348$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121,685.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 192.7)}}\) (asimptote \(121,685.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,168$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,612.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 190.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,612.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,911$ on 2020-10-16

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,450$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,521.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125,521.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,192$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,909.5}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 151.1)}}\) (asimptote \(2,909.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,375$ on 2020-10-16

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $100,431$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,352.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 134.7)}}\) (asimptote \(99,352.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,478$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,365.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 114.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,365.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,459$ on 2020-10-16

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 68%
Cuba recovered 66%
Dominican Republic recovered 39%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 35%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $31,265$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,437.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.7)}}\) (asimptote \(30,437.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $912$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{899.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 123.4)}}\) (asimptote \(899.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,811$ on 2020-10-16

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,118$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158,592.4}{1 + 10^{-0.004 (t - 529.6)}}\) (asimptote \(158,592.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $124$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(96.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $292$ on 2020-10-16

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,241$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,436.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 180.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,436.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $95$ on 2020-10-16

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 179.8)}}\) (asimptote \(117.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,601$ on 2020-10-16